Bitcoin (BTC) Price At Risk Of Dropping Nearly 10% This Week

Starting the analysis on a bearish tone, Bitcoin starts the week with a quick drop of 1% at press time as the momentum releases. Following the days of consolidation, the BTC price fails to gain any positive influence from the S&P 500, reaching its all-time high in two years. 

With the total crypto market cap at $1.573 trillion testing the 50-day EMA, Bitcoin shows intense bearish signals. 

However, despite the sentiments turning lukewarm, the Bitcoin price prediction based on Halving and potential rate cuts are bullish. 

Bitcoin Price Warns A Trendline Breakdown For A 6% Downside

Following a consolidating end to the bearish last week, the sellers are ready for high-activity moves this week. With a downfall of 1.08% at press time, the BTC price is testing the crucial support zone at the $41K mark. 

Source – Tradingview

With the buyers already losing the 50-day EMA and the 23.60% Fibonacci level of the recent upswing, the sellers dominate the short-term trend. Further, the rising intensity may soon result in a more severe pullback in BTC price, putting a dent in the higher low formation. 

The ongoing battle for the upcoming trend depends on the support trendline in action. The marked trendline remains a crucial reversal spot for the BTC price in confluence with the support zone. 

Option Data Suggests A Pivotal Juncture

With the open interest over all the exchanges for Bitcoin standing at $14.29 Billion, Coinglass shows Calls accounting for 208,692.47 BTC and Puts at 95,852.52 BTC. This gives a put-call ratio of less than 1, suggesting traders are interested in more call options. 

However, the PCR ratio does not include the volumes of the contracts traded. Nevertheless, the volumes are also bullish, as per Coinglass, with 54.42% of the volume being calls. 

The lack of clarity over the expiration dates questions the credibility of the above metrics and warns of an otherwise trend. Moreover, the PCR ratio can be a reversal sign as the market potentially signals an overbought phase. 

The BTC price trades at $41,003 at press time, with an intraday candle teasing a breakdown rally. 

MACD Indicator: After the recent bearish crossover, the MACD and signal lines cross under the halfway line. Hence, the momentum indicator warns of a declining trend in Bitcoin. 

Will BTC Price HODL The Fort At $40K?

As the sentiment crisis grows heavier, the crucial support zone at the $41K mark begins to bend. However, the breakdown will be the definite selling signal for sideline traders. In such a case, a crash in BTC price is expected to reach the 38.20% Fibonacci level at $38,642.

Conversely, a bullish reversal can result in a bounce back to the overhead resistance at $46,758.

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